1666702 - Exploring the Relationship between Temperatures and Electric Vehicle Adoption in the United States

Electric vehicle (EV) users living in colder or warmer climates experience shorter traveling ranges, slower acceleration, and longer recharge times, which might discourage the adoption of EVs. To explore the relationship between temperatures and EV adoption, a study is conducted in the United States (US), using California and New York data. We collect land surface and air temperature data at the ZIP code level in addition to sociodemographic, charging infrastructure, and land cover data. We then use random forest machine learning to predict battery electric (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV) vehicle population change rate and penetration. Our findings reveal that temperature predictors have a substantial influence on BEV and PHEV population change rate and penetration. Notably, average daily temperature variation emerged as the most influential factor in the variable importance analysis for BEV and PHEV adoption, with colder temperatures also ranking among the top five factors. Understanding the interplay between temperatures and EV adoption is crucial to assess the feasibility of adopting EVs in different climatic regions of the world and to ensure equitable access to this technology. Overall, this study highlights the importance of considering environmental factors in designing geotargeted interventions to promote EV adoption and contributes to fostering sustainable transportation options.