COVID-19 Telecommuting Impacts: A Study Investigating WFH Likelihood and Preference

The onset of COVID-19 has led to major disruptions in human mobility and freight movement, resulting in changing travel patterns, behaviors, trip-making, and activity participation. This has had a large-scale impact on the use of transportation systems, supply chains, and residential and work location preferences. One associated change has been the resurgence of telecommuting (WFH) in American cities, in response to rising virus infections and the potential for disruptions to normal life and economies at different scales. This study examines the factors that influence telecommuting in a post-COVID world but differs from peer literature by inspecting the critical differences in influencing factors surrounding (i) telecommuting likelihood; and (ii) telecommuting preference.

Telecommuting likelihood is the respondents' perception of what their employer would most likely do about WFH options when the COVID-19 pandemic is no longer a threat. On the other hand, telecommuting preference aims to understand respondents' preferences for commuting to work in the post-COVID era. Two econometric models were estimated to understand factors that influenced telecommuting likelihood: (i) a binary logit model of whether an individual will have the option to WFH post-COVID; and (ii) a random parameter ordered probit model of the respondent's perception of how many days their employer would allow WFH (1 day to 5 days a week) post-COVID-19. Similarly, two econometric models were estimated to understand factors that influenced telecommuting preference: (i) a random parameters binary logit model of whether an individual would like to commute to work post-COVID; and (ii) a random parameter ordered probit model of the respondent's preference to commute to work (1 day to 5 days a week) post-COVID.

Results show how highly educated individuals, living in cities, and who frequently attended virtual meetings before the pandemic felt that their employer would give them WFH options. Workers with WFH experience pre-pandemic, as well as those that had a high frequency of virtual meetings pre-pandemic, were more likely to WFH all days in a week. When telecommuting preference was inspected for similar influences, model results showed a high level of user heterogeneity regarding commuting, post-pandemic. For instance, highly educated workers, who had WFH experience pre-pandemic, with young children in their household preferred to commute to work, post-COVID. On the other hand, model results also show how individuals who reduced their use of mass transportation options since COVID-19 were less likely to want to commute to work. This finding indicates the importance of (re)investing in our transit systems as it continues to be the lifeline for a large section of workers, in accessing opportunities. 

Results from the telecommuting likelihood models indicate that workers feel their employers will likely bring them back to the workplace once COVID-19 is no longer a threat. Workers also seem to indicate that a 100% telecommuting regime is inconceivable, based on the model estimations result concerning telecommuting preferences.