Segmentation of vehicle transaction propensity: Impact of neighborhood and life-course events.

The ownership of vehicles is a critical factor in the analysis of travel demand. Vehicle transactions refer events that result in the modification of a household's vehicle fleet structure. Socio-demographic variables, vehicle attributes, and market dynamics are extensively studied factors that influence vehicle transactions. There has been a recent increase in research focusing on the influence of life-course events on vehicle transactions. This study utilizes latent class cluster analysis to analyze a retrospective response from 340 households in Kolkata, India. The focus is on their vehicle ownership behavior over the past decade, with the aim of quantifying factors such as household structure, life-stage, and vehicle fleet structure that contribute to vehicle transactions. The model that has been developed successfully identifies three latent clusters of households that exhibit variations in their propensity to engage in vehicle transactions. Although the option of 'no transaction' is the prevailing choice, previous car ownership and an increase in neighborhood density are factors that contribute to a decrease in the likelihood of engaging in a vehicle transaction. In contrast to neighborhood characteristics, life-course variables were determined to exhibit lower sensitivity, despite their insightful nature. Given the longitudinal nature of the analysis, the obtained transition probabilities can also be utilized to estimate a latent transition model, which can provide insights into the decision-making process for vehicle transactions and subsequently, the choice of vehicle type. This study offers a fresh perspective on the dynamics of vehicle transaction choice and makes a valuable contribution to the limited literature on vehicle ownership modeling in the Global South.